revenue forecast

Restaurant Revenue Forecast and Cost Control

It is very similar of the restaurant and room service forecasting process is to the rooms forecasting process. The forecasting process includes forecasting customers and average checks to calculate restaurant and room service revenues. The weekly forecast will be prepared day by day and added up for the total weekly customers, average check, and revenues. The breakfast, lunch, and dinner meal periods will replace the transient and group market segments used in the room forecast.

Room Service Customer Count Forecast
1. Enter the transient, group, and total rooms sold by day from the rooms sold forecast that was used in the previous rooms forecasting section.
2. Convert the rooms sold by day to hotel guest count by day by using the hotel’s historical average of number of guests per room. In our forecasting examples, we will use 1.2 guests per room.
3. Identify the percentage capture rates calculated from the Room Service history for each meal period. A capture rate is the historical percentage of hotel guests that use Room Service for each meal period. In our forecasting examples, we will use capture rates of 25% for breakfast, 8% for lunch, and 15% for dinner.
4. Calculate Room Service customers by day by meal period. Round up to whole
5. Add the daily customer counts to get the weekly totals. Check by adding across the daily totals for the week and comparing them by adding down the meal period totals for the week. They should be the same.
6. Transfer Room Service customer counts to the Room Service Revenue worksheet.

Restaurant Customer Count Forecast
1. Enter the historical daily customer count average for each day for each meal period on the Restaurant forecasting worksheet. Total the week down and across.
2. Based on forecasted hotel house counts and on outside activities, enter the appropriate house count adjustment that will reflect the expected business levels for the restaurant.
3. Total the new forecasted daily customer counts for each day by adding the historical average to the house count adjustment. Total for the week and check across and down.
4. Transfer restaurant customer counts to the Restaurant Revenue worksheet.

Room Service and Restaurant Revenue Forecast
1. Double-check the customer counts for each outlet by comparing the customer counts on the customer count forecasting worksheet to the customer count forecasts entered on the revenue forecasting worksheets. They should be the same.
2. Enter daily average checks by meal period for each day. These are obtained from historical averages in the restaurant and room service.
3. Calculate the meal period revenue for each day and each meal period by multiplying customer counts by average checks.
4. Add the revenues for each day to get the total revenue for each meal period for the week.
5. Calculate the weekly average check for each meal period and the total restaurant by dividing total weekly sales by total weekly customer counts.
6. Check your weekly totals by adding daily customer counts and revenues across and comparing that result by adding down the weekly meal period totals for customers and revenues. They should be the same.
7. You will have one Restaurant and Room Service customer forecast worksheet and two separate Revenue Forecasting worksheets—one for Room Service and one for the Restaurant.

The forecasting process includes forecasting customers and average checks to calculate restaurant and room service revenues. The weekly forecast will be prepared day by day and added up for the total weekly customers, average check, and revenues. The breakfast, lunch, and dinner meal periods will replace the transient and group market segments used in the room forecast.

Food cost/Stock control process:

Steps to Food Cost Control

There are eight essential steps in the food cost control process:

1. Purchasing

The first step is to order right. Having detailed recipes, designing purchasing specifications, doing comparative shopping based on those specifications, and comparing quality, price and service, etc. Don’t order too early in order to avoid spoilage, wasted storage space. Don’t order too late, so premium costs and delivery charges can be minimized.
Some operations use a minimum/maximum system to ensure inventories are kept at optimal levels. Under this system, a par level – the minimum amount of a product that should always
be in inventory – is established for most products in inventory. Par level equals the lead-time quantity plus the safety stock level of any given product.
Maximum quantity is the greatest number or amount of a product that should be in stock at any given time.

2. Receiving

The fundamentals are obvious:
count; weigh; inspect for condition and quality; verify against the purchase order; keep the receiving area clean and uncluttered; limit access to the receiving area; train the person receiving and make him or her responsible.
Large organisations will have a Goods Received Clerk or Officer on whom this responsibility falls. The procedure involved in checking goods delivered will vary in different establishments; the receiver of goods needs to be competent and have knowledge of purchase specifications.

3. Storing

The method and place of storage for the various items should be appropriate for the item. Make sure it is secure from pilferage, the shelves are strong enough for the product, and allow air circulation and easy to clean. All items should be stored at a temperature appropriate for that product. All items should be dated (with year, in some cases) and priced. Besides that, the storage area should keep orderly and clean.

4. Issuing

This is much more important aspect of cost control than it seems because in order to know your food and beverage cost you need to know at the beginning inventory, how much was sold, and ending inventory. Without the data, the accurate sales figure cannot be determined.

FIFO (first-in-first-out) —FIFO assumes that products are withdrawn from inventory in the order in which they were received and entered into storage. Therefore, the products that remain in storage are judge to be the most recently purchased products.

LIFO (last-in-first-out) —LIFO method assumes that reverse of the LIFO method; the products most recently purchased are used first. The value of inventory is then represented by the unit cost of items in inventory the longest.

5. Production

The primary purposes of food production controls are to produce the correct quantities of food based upon the forecasted customer count, control food costs, and ensure consistency through standardized recipes.

6. Service

Serving is not only about portion control, it is also about decisions made regarding portion size and presentation. For example, with a buffet, it is important to provide right equipment, such as plate size. Dining room service should be easy to control using good kitchen supervisors, trained cooks, photographs for cooks and servers, etc. Watch what comes back from bused tables to see if portions are proper. Marketing decisions may drive large portions but if the patrons are not eating it or taking it home, the portion size or the recipe should be reconsidered.

7. Sales

Sales controls provide internal control measures in the food sales outlet through use of guest checks, scatter sheets, inventories, electronic cash registers (ECR), POS equipment, and other food cost control systems.

8. Food cost analysis

(1) Setting a food cost objective (percentage),
(2) establishing standard recipes for all menu items,
(3) establishing standard portions for all items served,
(4) setting the selling price based upon unit cost,
(5) controlling purchasing, receiving, production, and waste,
(6) regularly monitoring food cost,
(7) enforcing internal control procedures, and
(8) performing food sales mix analysis at least twice per year.

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